In December of 2007, just prior to the current recession, the jobless rate was around 5 percent. According to some leading economists, it would take adding at least 400,000 jobs every month for three years or 280,000 jobs every month for five years to get back to that 5 percent pre-recession figure. The same analysts are saying that if Obama’s jobs plan was immediately passed in its entirety that it would create approximately 100,000 to 150,000 jobs per month for 2012 only.
According to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, who initially projected the 1.9 million job total used by Obama,
“I assumed that it would be paid for. I didn’t know when I did that simulation how the president proposed to pay for it… Beginning in 2013, and certainly into 2014, the plan is a drag on the economy because the stimulus starts fading away. So by 2015, the economy is in the same place as now, as if there were no jobs package. So it’s very important to get as many people working as fast as possible. If we go back into recession, it is going to be very difficult to get out. And it’s going to cost taxpayers tremendously.”
The US Chamber of Commerce has stated in order to bring the country back to the pre-recession level that it would take the addition of at least 20 million jobs over the next ten years.
In addition to the jobs figures, recovery also depends heavily upon the GDP. Martin Regalia of the US Chamber of Commerce added that it would take an annual growth of 4.5 percent in the GDP for the next three years, which is very unlikely to happen. The first six months of 2011 has yielded a paltry 0.7 percent increase in the GDP. Most of the same experts are predicting the GDP to grow by no more than 2.0 percent for the second half of the year. The outlook for 2012 isn’t much better at a projected growth of only 2.5 percent.
All-in-all, Obama’s jobs plan is temporary at best and appears to be no more effective than trying to fight a forest fire with a garden hose. You may temporarily stave off the fire in a very small area for short time, but eventually, the fire will over run you and that small area you so desperately tried to protect.