It seems the latest will-never-happen-idea doing the rounds in D.C is to dump Obama for Hillary. Rarely has such an utterly absurd idea been brought forth. Even under the best circumstances this has almost no chance of occurring.
People claim that Hillary would be a stronger candidate. These challenges, when they do happen, are always from the base, not the middle. Ronald Reagan to Gerald Ford and Teddy Kennedy to Jimmy Carter, it’s been the grass root voters that drive this sort of thing.
Moreover, even if there was going to be a challenge from the middle, Hillary is not the one to do it. Get a time machine, travel back just a few years and tell people about the great moderate hope, Hillary Clinton. Why dump a sitting president for being too divisive then replace him with someone who is equally divisive for different reasons? There is no Eisenhower or Powell in the Democrat Party to turn to. And if the choice is between two equally polarizing figures, why not stick with the one who’s already in?
And even if there was someone, do you really think that a switch would be risk free? George W. Bush said there was pressure to dump Vice President Cheney before reelection time. He decided against it because he felt such a move would be perceived as weakness, as an act of desperation. And that was for the Vice President spot on the ticket, with an incumbent much more unpopular that Obama is now.
For the Democrats to replace Obama is to say they were wrong back in 2008, but this time we are totally right, we promise. You think the average voter will fall for that?
Don’t forget the political infighting that would occur even if we were not talking about the first black president. Odd how many commentators who mention this Obama-out Clinton-in idea never explain how the Democrats are going to sell this to black voters who are the largest Democrat block of voters.
The first black president and suddenly you dump him? Yeah, that will go over well.
Obama could almost certainly end any talk within the party of dumping him by simply declaring he will run no matter what. Even if there was some great moderate hope, even if Obama’s polling numbers fall even more, there is no way the Democrats can win a three-way race.
The Democrat Party’s brand would be seriously damaged, blacks would be enraged and ready for payback, and donations would drop like a stone.
It’s going to be Obama in 2012. Get used to it. Get prepared. Get out the vote. Vote often (just kidding).