Analysis of Trump’s Decision to Kill the Iran Deal


“I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.” With those words, President Trump made the expected announcement that the United States is getting out from the very flawed JCPOA. After his speech, the President signed an executive order that reinstated the U.S. sanctions to where they were the day the JCPOA was approved.

The President began his speech by outlining his issues with the Iranian regime. Indicting them as “the leading state sponsor of terror. It exports dangerous missiles, fuels conflicts across the Middle East, and supports terrorist proxies and militias such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Taliban and Al Qaeda.”

He also pointed out that Netanyahu’s presentation last week proved that Iran had been lying to the world about its history of pursuing nuclear weapons.

Trump emphasized that even if the deal was allowed to stand, Iran would be able to break out to a nuclear weapon very quickly.

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“Making matters worse, the deal’s inspection provisions lack adequate mechanisms to prevent, detect, and punish cheating—and don’t even have the unqualified right to inspect many important locations, including military facilities”

In other words, no one can say Iran is compliant with the JCPOA, we don’t know if they are because not all of the important sites are allowed to be inspected.  Which was a point often made on this site, and that National Security Adviser John Bolton drove home the post-speech press briefing.

Bolton added that:

“Lifting the sanctions, as happened in 2015 as a result of the [Iran] deal, helps fuel the activity that Iran is undertaking now in Syria, its support for terrorist groups all around the region and the world like Hezbollah and Hamas. To really deal with this threat and try to bring peace and stability to the Middle East, and to relieve the world of the nuclear threat, you have to go after the whole thing. This is what he talked about with the European leaders and what we’re going to try to pursue.”

Trump reminded the world that the withdrawal, not a snap decision made without warning. He first announced in October 2017 that if the deal wasn’t changed the U.S. would withdraw. He repeated that warning in major January address. Therefore, time was up:

“In a few moments, I will sign a presidential memorandum to begin reinstating U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime. We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction. Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States. America will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail. We will not allow American cities to be threatened with destruction and we will not allow a regime the chance death to America to gain access to the most deadly weapons on Earth. Today’s action sends a critical message. The United States no longer makes empty threats. When I make promises, I keep them.”

President Trump gave the Iranian despots a choice, “You can have a nuclear weapons program or you can have a functioning economic system. One or the other, but you can’t have both.”

The entire sanctions regime is not being completely imposed immediately. For now, it only bars new business deals with Iran.

Per the Treasury Department (who is responsible for imposing sanctions)  they will begin outlining and implementing 90-day and 180-day wind-down periods for activities involving Iran “At the end of the 90-day and 180-day wind-down periods, the applicable sanctions will come back into full effect.”

While our European allies are disappointed in President Trump’s decision. Their motivation for remaining in the JCPOA has less to do with any feeling that the deal will prevent Iran from going nuclear and more to do with the fact that their local companies are doing billions of dollars of business with the Iranian regime…

 

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