Climatologist Dr.Judith Curry Hits BS Button On Sea Level Rise Fear Mongering


Good News! We’re not going to drown. At least not from the sea level rising. That’s what the scare tactics of those pushing the climate change hypothesis keep telling us. Writing on her website, Dr. Judith Curry hit the BS button on the sea level rise claims pushed by the scaremongers.

The available evidence shows the following:

  • Sea level was apparently higher than present at the time of the Holocene Climate Optimum (~ 5000 years ago), at least in some regions.
  • Tide gauges show that sea levels began to rise during the 19th century, after several centuries associated with cooling and sea level decline. Tide gauges also show that rates of global mean sea level rise between 1920 and 1950 were comparable to recent rates.
  • Recent research has concluded that there is no consistent or compelling evidence that recent rates of sea level rise are abnormal in the context of the historical records back to the 19th century that are available across Europe.

She adds that any sea level rises we’ve seen have had nothing to do with mankind,

  • The slow emergence of fossil fuel emissions prior to 1950 did not contribute significantly to sea level rise observed in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
  • The recent acceleration in mean global sea level rise (since 1995) is caused by mass loss from Greenland that appears to have been larger during the 1930’s, with both periods associated with the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

She reminds us to remember that the real reason for predicting the sea level rises is “providing support for the hypothesis of human-caused climate change.”  So when they come up with computer models, suggests Dr. Curry, they ignore the natural sea level variations. Or to put it another way, they are saying it’s raining without looking out the window.

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 In many of the most vulnerable coastal locations, the dominant causes of local sea level rise are natural oceanic and geologic processes and land use practices. Land use and engineering in the major coastal cities have brought on many of the worst problems, notably landfilling in coastal wetland areas and groundwater extraction.

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Dr. Curry says the predictions about sea level rise are dependent on the climate models predictions of temperature change. The climate models have been almost as accurate as my annual late August predictions that my New York Jets will be in the Super Bowl.  Six recent peer-reviewed papers have shown that the climate models are basically useless.  If those models are useless it’s another strike against the sea level scaremongering.

Even if a miracle happens and for the first time the climate models are accurate, Dr. Curry demonstrates that the predicted sea level rise won’t happen:

The following ranges of 21st century sea level rise predictions are classified in terms of strength of the knowledge base, contingent on the climate model temperature projections being correct:

  • 0.18 to 0.51 cm [7 inches to 1.67 feet]: Well justified. This is the AR4 ‘likely’ range for all scenarios except for the most extreme scenario. These estimates are based on well-understood and quantified physical processes.
  • 0.51 cm to 1 m [1.67 to 3.3 feet] Possible, based on growing understanding of ice sheet dynamics, but associated with substantial quantitative uncertainty.
  • 1 to 1.6 m: [3.3 to 5.2 feet] Possible but weakly justified, including poorly understood processes such as marine ice cliff instability.
  • 1.6 m to 2.5 m: [5.2 to 8.2 feet] Borderline impossible, requiring a cascade of extremely unlikely events.
  • 2.5 m [8.2 feet]: Impossible. Relies on RCP8.5 and a cascade of poorly understood extreme events.

Putting it all together, Dr. Curry is telling us there is no need for an emergency trip to the sporting goods store to purchase SCUBA equipment and lessons.

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