Establishment GOP Afraid Trump Could Lose Arizona in 2020


Establishment Republicans in Arizona are apparently fearful that President Trump could lose Arizona to a Democrat in the 2020 elections.

According to the Washington Examiner’s Kerry Pickett, Arizona could flip blue for 2020.

“Arizona typically has been, in a presidential year, somewhere around an eight-point Republican advantage and Trump only won Arizona with about three points. So, I definitely think Arizona is very competitive from my perspective,” Paul Bentz, vice president of research and strategy at High Ground, a Phoenix-based firm specializing in public opinion surveys, strategy, and campaign management, told the Washington Examiner. “Arizona is more likely to be a toss-up than Texas is.”

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President Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win Arizona, in 1996. Before that, Democrat Harry S. Truman pulled an election upset when he won the presidency with Arizona in 1948 against Republican Thomas Dewey. Republican presidential nominees have won the Copper State in all the other election cycles.

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Even Barack Obama could not take Arizona in his big wins in either term.

However, recent elections have shown Arizona to be weakening for the GOP:

But recent electoral trends in the state have Republican strategists concerned. The 2018 Senate victory of then-Arizona Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Green Party activist — the first in her party to be elected to the Senate since the 1980s — has Republicans reassessing their dominance.

“In 2018 instead of that typical 50% turnout that we’ve seen in the past, it was nearly 65% turnout. So not quite presidential level. But way beyond typical voter turnout,” Bentz said, noting independents in Arizona had participated at significantly higher rates than expected. There’s “a pretty extensive amount of voter interest, particularly among younger voters. Democrats over-participated by a point — nearly a point-and-a-half,” Bentz said.

Indeed, the one way to see the sense in these worries is to look at the state’s recent Senate election where in a close 50 to 47 percent margin, Greenie Democrat Kyrsten Sinema toppled Martha McSally, the GOP’s handpicked replacement for then (thankfully) retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake.

Sinema pretended to be a moderate when she ran, but her record clearly showed she was a left-winger. And yet, she still won the election in what is supposed to be a plus 8 GOP state. That really is a worrisome thing for the GOP.

Of course, one problem Arizona has is that so many communist Californians are moving there to escape the destruction the Democrats are wrecking on California. Unfortunately, these immigrants are bringing their dumb left-wing voting habits with them from California and preparing to destroy Arizona just like they did their former state.

Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter @warnerthuston.

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