If you were standing outside could you tell the difference between 58.46ºF and 58.45ºF?
After the Obama administration made splashing headlines with their announcement of 2014 being the hottest year on record in the past 135 years, climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels is asking the question above. He quickly answers his own question saying NO, you can’t tell the difference.
In a report on Climate Depot, Marc Morano states:
“Annual temperatures are calculated by averaging up monthly readings, so the last data point that we have is October. The National Climatic Data Center, a part of the Department of Commerce, estimates that global average temperature was a record high of 58.46°F. The previous record was 58.45°.”
“The key word is ‘estimates.’ When a scientist measures something—with a ruler, a scale, or a thermometer, for example—there’s always a measurement error owing to properties of the measuring device or even the skill of the scientist. When it comes to global temperature, scientists are averaging data from over a thousand thermometers scattered about the planet. Some are well-taken care of, and some are not. Some may have traces of urban warming in them. Nor is the number of readings exactly the same from year to year, or even from month to month.”
“The result is that there is a central estimate (58.46°) and a 95% confidence range as to where the ‘true’ value lies.”
“The most recent and most transparent error analysis of global temperatures has been done by a group called Berkeley Earth. For October, they find that the 95% confidence range is 0.10°F, or +/- 0.05°.”
“So, using the normal rules of science, is 58.46° then distinguishable from 58.45°? In a word, ‘NO.’”
Using their own data and error factor, the temperature they are reporting could be 58.41ºF to 58.51ºF. An average temperature of 58.41ºF would not make 2014 the hottest year on record in 135 years. Not only that, but like Morano stated, it’s only an estimate.
When I was in college, had I turned in any report that made the same blatant claims as the feds are making based upon similar estimates and error factor, I would have received an F and told to do it over. I would have been told that it was shoddy, unscientific and unacceptable work for any science student.
What I also find interesting is that 2013 was one of the four coldest years in the US. So how do you go from one of the coldest years to the hottest year back to back?
This goes with what climatologist Judith Curry stated:
“With 2014 essentially tied with 2005 and 2010 for hottest year, this implies that there has been essentially no trend in warming over the past decade.”
This clearly indicates that using a single year of temperature variance to prove long range global warming is not only inaccurate but it’s completely unscientific.
To add further question to the feds claim, Morano points out that there are two different data sets used for collecting world temperatures. He explains:
“There are dueling global datasets – surface temperature records and satellite records – and they disagree. The satellites show an 18 year plus global warming ‘standstill’ and the satellite was set up to be ‘more accurate’ than the surface records.”
It turns out that the record average temperature being reported is based on surface temperatures instead of the more accurate satellite data set. Morano then states the reason why feds are using the less accurate data set for their big announcement:
“Even former NASA global warming chief scientist James Hansen, the leading proponent of man-made global warming in the U.S., conceded in 2011 that the ‘hottest year’ rankings are essentially meaningless.”
“This immeasurable difference is not even within the margin of error of temperature gauges. The claim of the ‘hottest year’ is simply a political statement not based on temperature facts.”
It’s all about trying to prove the global climate change agenda held by liberals including Barack Obama. When the real facts fail to support their agenda, they are forced to exaggerate and erroneously report less accurate data in their attempt to affirm their lies. If global warming isn’t true, then Obama has a problem trying to force his carbon tax issues which he needs to control businesses as part of his socialist policies.
You also have to realize that Obama and his administration has been consistently lying to the American people about Obamacare, Fast and Furious, IRS scandal, Benghazi, unemployment, gun rights, free speech and hundreds of other issues. To be honest, which is something they don’t seem to be able to do, you’re better off rejecting most of what Obama and government says and believe the opposite.