Earlier this week, Bloomberg claimed in an op-ed that voters miss the Obama regime due to what Albert R. Hunt called his “largely corruption-free administration.” To prove his point, he cited a flawed poll published by CNN:
“A CNN poll last week showed that most Americans think Barack Obama was a better president than Donald Trump has been. The margin was huge: 19 percentage points,” Hunt began. He didn’t mention that he was using the total Adults numbers instead of the data for registered voters that were available in the same poll.
Hunt, of course, didn’t provide any information on the demographics of the poll takers vs. the U.S. Population used to create this illusion, not his fault, CNN didn’t offer them
There’s something that seems fishy when looks at the results by demographic.
Among all adults who were asked the question (half the sample), 56% said Obama was a better president 37% said, Trump. However, 49% of Whites preferred Trump (43% said, Obama). Now here’s the kicker, there weren’t enough non-white respondents to generate a percentage that’s why the column reads ‘N/A.’ Per the poll “Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error.”
According to the 2010 census, non-white Americans represent 38% of the population, a significant subgroup which should have generated a considerable sample size. The raises the question, if there weren’t enough non-white respondents to give stable percentages for Obama vs. Trump, how were there enough non-white respondents for a 25 percentage point swing? From a 6 percentage point Trump advantage to a 19 percentage point disadvantage.
Mr. Hunt, an experienced political observer, should have noted that up front, but instead. He continued:
Trump supporters will yell “fake news,” but they’ll be wrong. Respondents to the same survey thought Hillary Clinton would have been a better president than Trump, but only by three percentage points. By comparison, she bested Trump in the 2016 popular vote by 2.1 percentage points.
Apples and oranges, If Hunt wanted to make a comparison from the poll to the popular vote, he would have used “registered voters” which is the closest to actual voters one could get from this particular poll report. Using registered voters, Trump beats Clinton by 3%.
The explanation seems simpler: a respect for integrity. Obama had it, running a largely corruption-free administration. The Trump presidency, all 16 months of it, has been marked by lies, greed, ethical transgressions and criminal charges.
Actually, the explanation is even simpler, the poll seems bogus. But Al Hunt’s fake explanation is more bogus…