Poll Gives Best Evidence So Far that Trump Could Win Re-Election


A new CBS poll is probably the best evidence to date that President Donald Trump could win a second term in the White House.

Historically, many elections have hinged on the economy, and the poll offers Trump good news on that front with a finding that “71% of respondents felt the economy was in good shape. 94% of Republicans and 66% of Independents agreed, and even an astonishing 60% of Democrats echoed the sentiment,” Daily Wire reported.

There is more:

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Additionally, the poll found that as opposed to the beginning of 2018, when only 32% of respondents gave Trump credit for the strong economy, that figure has risen to 41%. Another 44% gave Trump partial credit for the strong economy.

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In another finding, those who are optimistic about the stock market rose from 49 percent to 56 percent. And 64 percent said their own financial situation was relatively stable.

These kinds of good feelings usually give the incumbent a boost. Fewer people desire changes when things are good.

Forbes magazine added:

Trump has presided over the strongest economy in living memory. Unemployment is at record lows, inflation is nearly non-existent, and new jobs are being created at a startling pace. Anyone who studies presidential politics knows that strong economies are the most important factor driving support for the incumbent. While growth may moderate between now and election day, few economists expect a recession anytime soon.

Trump’s approval ratings have also gone up recently. And this is despite the daily drumbeat by the media that Trump is the evil orange man.

As PennLive noted, Democrats may have an uphill battle to defeat Trump:

The Democrats who are fighting to deny the Republican president a second term are beginning to acknowledge the weight of their challenge: Since World War II, no incumbent president has ever lost re-election in a growing economy. Even Trump’s critics are forced to admit the state of the economy could help him at the ballot box. “Relative to all the other terrible aspects of Trump’s record, the economy is more of an asset to him,” said Geoff Garin, a veteran pollster whose clients include Priorities USA, the most powerful super PAC in Democratic politics.

All of this redounds in Trump’s favor and past history maintains that these facts will lead to re-election.

Of course, nothing is set in stone, statistics or no, and each election has its own peculiar set of circumstances. Americans have made unpredictable moves in the voting booth before.

But, it does seem likely that the Democrats will have a tougher time defeating Trump than they imagine.

Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter @warnerthuston.

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